Is there a Pediatrics Shortage in China?
Chinese Social Media is alight with worries about a severe shortage of pediatricians and medical supplies for young people. According to an article in Beijing News,
"At 4 p.m. on November 26th, at the emergency triage desk of the Children's Hospital affiliated with the Capital Institute of Pediatrics, the handwritten call number list had reached over five hundred. The crowd queuing at the triage desk blocked the entrance and exit of the emergency department. Family members, unable to find a spot, were seen navigating through the crowd with one hand holding up an IV bottle and the other leading a child, searching for a place to settle. Almost every corner of the outpatient hall was occupied."
I will argue that this social media narrative is mostly false, China’s number of pediatricians is much better than it was 5 years ago. Instead, there is a temporary shortage because of the huge amount of children sick with respiratory diseases.
Background
This winter, many Chinese children and families are affected by respiratory infections. There have been posts on Chinese social media indicating the absurdly long lines at the hospital this winter. One mother posted on Xiaohongshu that her child’s “9 p.m. appointment was not seen until 7 a.m. the next morning.” There are also posts claiming that pediatricians are quitting their jobs due to the long hours. Consequently, people on Chinese social media are pessimistic about nurturing a child — they are worried that there aren’t enough resources, including basic medical resources such as pediatricians.
Pediatrics in China
Firstly, I want to point out that the situation of Chinese pediatrics is not as pessimistic as people on Chinese social media thought and it’s certainly not as bad as several years before. In general, the children (under 14)-to-pediatrician ratio is decreasing. Chinese government is well-aware that they need better medical systems for children so that parents are at ease for giving birth. This is a necessary step for encouraging people to have children and thus remedy the decreasing population. For one, in 2016, National Health and Family Planning Commission published “Opinions on Strengthening the Reform and Development of Children's Medical and Health Services,” stating several policies that would help increase the number of pediatricians. For one, "Starting from 2016, integrated pediatrician training programs have been implemented in 39 universities conducting '5+3' integrated medical education."
(Data from China Statistical Yearbook and World Bank)
Still, 1212 children to 1 pediatrician certainly is not a satisfactory number. Developed countries like the U.S. usually have a number < 1000. I just want to point out that the panic of not having enough pediatricians is resulted mostly from the sudden demand due to the respiratory disease targeting children than a drop in the supply of pediatricians.
Another qualitative evidence is from my friend, who is a doctor in China. He made several points:
There IS a shortage of pediatricians the past fall, due to the respiratory disease.
The situation is somewhat alleviated at hospitals with a standardized training system because trainees could be used when there is a shortage of clinical doctors.
There always has been a shortage of pediatricians. In fact, the situation has been better these recent few years.
To sum up, I think that China has a shortage of pediatricians, but it’s not as dire as Chinese social media states. But I understand why people are freaking out about the shortage at this point—probably it has to do with the polarized opinions toward child-bearing and nurturing in China now.